Bitcoin has a 50% Chance at Surpassing $30k in 2021 – BTC Analyst

Quick take:

  • Timothy Peterson has forecasted that Bitcoin has a 50% chance at surpassing $30k in 2021
  • Bitcoin has just set an all-time high of $23,800 – Binance rate
  • The daily BTC/USDT still hints of bullishness and Bitcoin could keep moving higher
  • Deribit has introduced a Bitcoin options contract expiring September 2021 with a $100k strike price 
  • Such an options contract might be testing the limits of probabilities

Veteran Bitcoin and Crypto analyst, Timothy Peterson, has given BTC a 50% chance at breaking and surpassing $30,000 next year. Mr. Peterson made the comments via Twitter and also pointed out that such a value puts Bitcoin’s expected return at 21%. Below is his tweet in which he shares his analysis of Bitcoin.

There's a 50% chance that #bitcoin will surpass $30,000 in 2021. This puts the expected return (https://t.co/BOaMmNUbPO) at 21%.

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) December 17, 2020

Bitcoin Sets a New All-Time High of $23,800, Aims Higher

Mr. Peterson’s comments were made earlier today and before Bitcoin set a new all-time high value of $23,800 -Binance rate. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $23,584 and looks set to attempt breaking this recently set all-time high in the hours or days to follow.

A quick glance at the daily BTC/USDT chart below reveals that Bitcoin is still bullish and could have enough ‘juice’ for another push higher.

From the daily Bitcoin chart above, the following can also be observed.

  • The MACD has just crossed in a bullish manner above the baseline
  • Trade volume is once again very much in the green
  • The daily MFI is yet to be exhausted at a value of 59, hinting that Bitcoin could keep moving up
  • However, the daily RSI is high at 77. This is the same level it was when Bitcoin pushed from $12k to $19k in late October through November
  • Comparing the current RSI level to that of late October, it can be concluded that Bitcoin has a chance at sustaining this rally further and before the year is over.

Deribit Introduces $100k Strike For BTC Options that Expire Sept 2021

It is therefore not surprising that the crypto exchange of Deribit has introduced a Bitcoin options contract with a $100k strike price which will expire September 24th, 2021. The exchange shared their new investment product via the following tweet.

We've introduced the $100K strike for the BTC-24SEP21 expiry. 🚀#Bitcoin

— Deribit (@DeribitExchange) December 17, 2020

However, Bitcoin pushing as high as $100k by next September might be pushing the limits of probabilities as explained by Timothy Peterson in the following statement in response to Deribit’s launch of the options contract.

A lottery ticket for suckers, no rational investor would take this bet. The expected return on this option is effectively 0 and probability of failure exceedingly high. The expected return on buy and hold #bitcoin is > 0 and probability of failure almost zero.

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