DAN HODGES: Don't get sucked into the culture wars, Rishi

August 19, 2023

DAN HODGES: Don’t get sucked into the culture wars, Rishi… It won’t impress voters who can’t pay their bills

Rishi Sunak is off to war. No more abstract lectures on his NHS Workforce Plan. Or entreaties about the lifelong joys of mathematics. Instead, the Prime Minister is embarking on what’s been briefed as a new period of ‘hyper-political government’.

Illegal immigration. Eco-activism. Trans-rights. These are just three areas where the Tories will attempt to drive a wedge between Sir Keir Starmer and the British public.

‘You ain’t seen nothing yet!’ one adviser reportedly warned, as they paved the way for what a Cabinet Minister described to me as ‘a Culture War. But with nukes.’

For some Tory MPs, this is the moment they’ve been waiting for. They believe Sunak’s professorial style is failing to engage voters, and are desperate for some electoral red-meat to mobilise an increasingly disillusioned Tory base.

‘Rishi’s technocratic stuff is fine. But he’s not exactly a leader of men is he?’ one exasperated Red Waller complained.

Rishi Sunak is off to war. No more abstract lectures on his NHS Workforce Plan

These are just three areas where the Tories will attempt to drive a wedge between Sir Keir Starmer and the British public

But other senior MPs are nervous. They believe getting sucked into a pre-electoral cultural war would prove to be the Conservative party’s Vietnam. ‘It’s bull***t,’ one Minister told me, it would be totally divisive and an utter disaster.’

One concern is about the basic politics of the strategy.

There are significant numbers of Tory supporters who have a relatively liberal perspective on a number of culture war issues. As one Tory MP explained: ‘I’ve got a lot of members in my association who are quite strong on green issues. They take their lead from their grandkids. They may not be sitting in the road with Just Stop Oil but they’re worried about the climate crisis and expect us to do something about it.’

Another issue centres on Sunak’s personality. As one Minister said: ‘It’s just unbelievably short-sighted. You can’t sell what you’re not.’ He suggested that no-nonsense Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson, or Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage could deliver such a strategy. ‘But everyone knows this isn’t who Rishi is. He isn’t a culture crusader. He’s a manager and a problem solver.’

Other Ministers believe there are genuine tensions between Sunak and his advisers.

As one told me: ‘I’ve spoken to him about this stuff. And he believes in Net Zero. He says his daughters are on at him all the time about it. And he doesn’t support this rubbish about ditching the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC). He knows it would hit the economy. Biden and the Americans would go nuts. And it would drive a coach and horses through the Windsor agreement with the EU.’

All of which may serve as a timely corrective to those who think trying to run a repeat of the 2019 General Election campaign, in which Johnson – literally – bulldozed Jeremy Corbyn into political oblivion, is the way to turn round Tory fortunes.

The illegal cross-Channel boats are not a political abstraction. They create very serious community tensions, undermine the ability of governments of any persuasion to maintain a fair and functional migration system, and risk the lives of the migrants themselves

Whatever the dangers of climate change, a small number of eco-zealots cannot be allowed to unilaterally usurp the law, and hold the rest of the nation to ransom

But there are still some political realities the Tory party cannot avoid. One is that the culture war cannot be dodged via conscientious objection. Or rather, the issues which elements of the Liberal Left frame as ‘The Culture War’ in order to try to supress debate around them, cannot be dodged.

Whatever the dangers of climate change, a small number of eco-zealots cannot be allowed to unilaterally usurp the law, and hold the rest of the nation to ransom.

If we genuinely believe in protecting and promoting the rights of women, then we do have to define and codify what a woman actually is.

But it’s equally true that those advising Rishi Sunak to move away from a strategy of basic competence and service delivery, and on to a programme of aggressively focused ‘wedge issues’, are missing the point. If Sunak cannot demonstrate an ability to successfully and competently manage Britain’s problems, he is a dead duck.

Take, for example, the recent Small Boats Week – a PR drive trumpeted in advance by Sunak’s spin doctors as an example of how the Government was back on the front foot and winning the summer communications war.

It rapidly descended into a shambles. The week started with the number of small boat arrivals officially topping 100,000 migrants. The Bibby Stockholm floating asylum centre then had to be evacuated because of a legionella scare. And it ended in tragedy and acrimony when six migrants died after their makeshift vessel sank in the Channel.

Claiming to identify with the instincts of the British people, while castigating Sir Keir Starmer for being a soft-touch, isn’t going to work for Sunak any more. We are far too deep into 13 years of Tory rule for that.

When confronted with the death and chaos on Britain’s shores, the average voter merely shrugs and says ‘whatever you think of Starmer, he can’t do any worse’.

There is a little too much vigour in the way some of those around Government are trumpeting their culture war charge. It’s now 21 years since Theresa May gave her ‘nasty party’ speech

The voters aren’t idiots. If Sunak and his team start trying to wage a culture war to distract from their failure to deliver on his Five Priorities, or other areas, they will see it coming a mile off. And they will punish them for it

There is another major problem for Sunak. It is one thing to be seen to be firm but fair. But being seen to be callous and vindictive is something else.

There is a little too much vigour in the way some of those around Government are trumpeting their culture war charge. It’s now 21 years since Theresa May gave her ‘nasty party’ speech. Eventually, she learnt the hard way just how nasty elements of her party could be. But when she delivered her warning, her instincts were sound. The British people want their borders controlled, their roads kept clear and women’s safe spaces protected. But they don’t want to see Ministers embarking on a campaign of persecution against refugees, environmental activists and the trans community purely in a desperate, last gasp effort to save their own skins.

Because this is the other problem facing Sunak. He cannot magically recast the electoral landscape. Because again, it is far too late in the political cycle to attempt to re-set the nation’s priorities. Last week, a poll in The Mail on Sunday was unequivocal. Some 69 per cent of people said the cost-of-living crisis is the most important issue facing their family. Next was the NHS on 35 per cent.

The environment? 12 per cent. Immigration? Ten per cent. Trans Rights? Two per cent.

Yes, sit down with a typical Briton and they will express strong views on a wide range of issues. But they know the difference between an issue and a family necessity. Paying the bills. Putting food on the table. Making ends meet at the end of the month.

Until Sunak can demonstrate he can deliver some reassurance on these fundamentals, he can drive as many wedges between himself and Sir Keir as he likes. The voters will simply turn round and say ‘thanks Rishi, but you had your chance’.

Those advisers urging the PM to ditch his strategy of calm delivery and moderation in an attempt to win the culture war – and by doing so the General Election – are presenting a false choice.

Demonstrating he is competent and compassionate is the only way Rishi Sunak can find a genuine solution to those contentious culture war issues, and turn his political fortunes around.

Halving inflation. Getting the economy growing. Reducing debt. Cutting NHS waiting lists. Actually halting the illegal boats. Only when he delivers on all these can the Prime Minister and his aides turn to the nation and boast with confidence, ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet’.

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