Losing streak leaves Premier vulnerable

With just over 12 months before Victoria goes to the polls, and of the harshest of the restrictions behind us, Premier Daniel Andrews is evidently brushing up his image. On Tuesday, when the government fronted the media in response to the damning findings of the royal commission into Crown casino, Mr Andrews was nowhere to be seen.

Instead, it was left to Gaming Minister Melissa Horne to publicly explain why a private company that was being overseen by an independent regulator appointed by the government was able to keep its doors open despite engaging in a “disgraceful” litany of legal and ethical breaches. It was a black eye for a government that had dropped the ball on gaming.

Daniel Andrews in hard hat and hi-vis this week. Credit:Nine News

Two days later, when the winning bidder was announced for the $11.1 billion deal to build, operate and maintain the tunnels of Melbourne’s long-awaited North East Link, Mr Andrews was front and centre. No matter that the latest COVID-19 death toll had hit 25, the highest number since the Delta outbreak, the Premier was decked out in hard hat and hi-vis vest, pumping up Labor’s most potent electoral trump card, the “big build”.

It’s safe to say that right up to polling day, Victorians will see a lot more of the Premier in a hard hat and a lot less of him – if at all – in his North Face jacket, the sartorial trademark of his COVID-19 briefing days. The latest polling published in The Age on Thursday highlights why this would be a wise decision.

After Victorians largely supported Mr Andrews during the marathon lockdowns, the Premier’s armour is showing some vulnerabilities. Two months ago, 50 per cent of voters preferred Mr Andrews as premier, with then Liberal leader Michael O’Brien trailing a long way behind at 24 per cent.

The dumping of Mr O’Brien to allow Matthew Guy a second go at the party’s leadership appears to have paid off. Support for the Premier has slipped 5 points to 45 per cent, while Mr Guy has enjoyed a honeymoon period, with an 8 percentage point increase on Mr O’Brien’s position.

While it must be a welcome boost for the new Liberal leader, the dent in Mr Andrews’ popularity appears not to have translated to an equivalent boost to the Coalition. The opposition’s primary vote has dropped to 34 per cent, which is below the 35 per cent it recorded at the 2018 election. If that fails to shift, Mr Guy better get used to leading in opposition.

While that may be good news for Labor, it is also a reminder that Mr Andrews, who had previously been largely impervious to controversy, is vulnerable. And with good reason. While Labor has had a good string of successes, during the party’s seven years in power, the scandals have begun to pile up.

During the pandemic, the botched hotel quarantine program was the most egregious blunder, but others – such as the allegations of branch stacking, government dealings with the firefighters’ union during an industrial dispute, cost blowouts with every major infrastructure project and the appalling state of Victoria’s triple zero services – betray a government showing signs of wear and tear.

At the last election, the Coalition lost 11 seats, while Labor picked up nine. It was a trouncing, and Mr Andrews came out of it politically untouchable. While it’s too early to say whether these latest figures reflect the end of his political ascendancy, there is no doubt that exhausted Victorians are going to need convincing that he should lead the state for another four years.

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