US admiral: Russia's attack on Ukraine shows threat of China to Taiwan

Top US admiral in Indo-Pacific says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a warning to the world that a Chinese attack on Taiwan ‘could really happen’

• Admiral John Aquilino said China displayed increasing ‘boldness’ in the past year
• The head of Indo-Pacific Command told the Financial Times that the lesson from Russian invasion was that the West ‘has to be prepared at all times’
• It comes amid heightened concerned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could embolden China to take action on Taiwan 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should serve as a warning to the world that China could launch an assault on the autonomous island of Taiwan, according to the top U.S. military commander in the region.

Admiral John Aquilino, head of Indo-Pacific Command, said China had displayed a ‘boldness’ during the past year – from its increasingly assertive stance toward Taiwan to its hypersonic weapon test last July. 

But it was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said, that should put the world on alert. 

‘I don’t think anyone five months ago would have predicted an invasion of the Ukraine. So I think the number one lesson is: “Hey, this could really happen,”‘ he told the Financial Times during a visit to Australia.

‘Number two, don’t be complacent . . . We have to be prepared at all times.’

His warning comes after months of Chinese aggression directed at Taiwan, including nine Chinese aircraft entering its air defence zone on the day Russian troops invaded Ukraine.

That triggered fears that China could make its move while the world was watching eastern Europe.

This week Taiwan’s defense minister announced that he was considering extending the current four-months compulsory military service as part of its response to Chinese maneuvers.  

‘Their operations have certainly changed specifically as it applies to their operations around Taiwan — increased maritime and air operations that are designed as a pressure campaign against the people of Taiwan,’ said Aquilino said in his first major interview since taking over Indo-Pacom last April. 

US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John Aquilino inspects US Marines at ADF Robertson Barracks in Darwin, Australia, on Wednesday. In an interview, he said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should warn the world to be wary of China’s intentions towards Taiwan

Taiwanese army soldiers during a Readiness Enhancement Drill, amid escalating Taiwan-China tensions in January. The government in Taipei is watching the fallout from Ukraine

Taiwan is bracing for more Chinese military patrols this year, after Peoples Liberation Army incursions more than doubled in 2021, fueling concern about a clash

aiwanese army soldiers during a Readiness Enhancement Drill, amid escalating Taiwan-China tensions, in Taiwan

As a result, he added: ‘We have to make sure we are prepared should any actions get taken.’

Taiwan is just one of the areas of worry, he added.

Last year China China tested a hypersonic weapon that flew around the earth and the Pentagon believes that Beijing’s nuclear arsenal could grow to more than 1000 warheads by 2030.

The result is a series of dire warnings from U.S. officials that China is racing to overtake U.S. military might by using its new economic power to drive investment in weapons and technology. 

Nowhere is that more worrying than Taiwan, to where the Biden administration last month dispatched former senior defense officials in a show of support following the invasion of Ukraine.

The visit was led by Mike Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

It followed months of Chinese aggression directed at Taiwan, including nine Chinese aircraft entering its air defence zone on the day Russian troops invaded Ukraine.   

At the same time President Tsai Ing-wen ordered Taiwan’s military and intelligence security apparatus on to high alert, amid warnings that China could sense Western weakness after failing to prevent Russia’a attack.

Kurt Campbell, Biden’s Asia czar, described the delegation as ‘unofficial’ during an online discussion with the German Marshall Fund. 

Beijing claims the self-governed island as its own and has promised to bring it under Chinese control, by force if necessary. 

A Taiwanese corvette is deployed during a Readiness Enhancement Drill, amid escalating Taiwan-China tensions, in Taiwan

Beijing claims the self-governing island of Taiwan as its own territory, and has promised to take it by force if necessary. It has stepped up aggressive flights by warplanes in recent months

Beijing’s ambassador to Washington ratcheted up tension further in January by warning that the two superpowers could go to war if the US encouraged the island’s independence. 

The attack on Ukraine has added another dimension at a time when relations between Beijing and Moscow were reported to be at a historic high. Last week China appeared to throw Russia a sanctions-busting lifeline, by lifting wheat import restrictions.

Meghan O’Sullivan, a former deputy national security adviser, and Michele Flournoy, a former undersecretary of defense under Obama, were also part of the delegation.

And two former National Security Council senior directors for Asia, Mike Green and Evan Medeiros, will also make the trip, which is intended to demonstrate continued support for Taiwan.

‘The selection of these five individuals sends an important signal about the bipartisan U.S. commitment to Taiwan and its democracy, and demonstrates that the Biden administration’s broader commitment to Taiwan remains rock solid,’ said the senior administration official. 

Details of the mission emerged soon after Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine, and nine Chinese jets buzzed Taiwanese airspace – a greater number than the usual incursions. 

The number of aircraft involved was well off the last large-scale incursion – 39 Chinese aircraft on January 23 – and since then, such fly-bys have been sporadic with far fewer aircraft.

But Taiwan said the latest mission involved eight Chinese J-16 fighters and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft, which flew over an area to the northeast of the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands at the top end of the South China Sea.

Taiwan said it scrambled interceptors to counter the threat from eight Chinese J-16 fighters and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft, which flew over an area to the northeast of the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands at the top end of the South China Sea.

Taipei has been warily watching the fallout from Ukraine. 

‘The principle of self-determination cannot be erased by brute force,’ said Taiwan’s Vice President Lai Ching-te. 

At the time diplomats said the delegation was evidence that Russian actions had prompted Washington, which under Biden has increased its focus on the Indo-Pacific region, to bolster relationships. 

‘The overall sense is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has precipitated seismic shift in geopolitics. It doesn’t undermine Indo-Pacific efforts – it reinforces them,’ said a senior Western diplomat.

‘We’ll see the US doubling down on relationships in and beyond the region.’ 

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