Bitcoin has been ranging for the past two weeks after it crashed from $64,000, with it oscillating between the low $30,000s and high $30,000s.
The currency almost touched $40,000 recently, reaching $39,500, but went down instead to $35,700 with it now trading at $36,900.
That’s just one of these ping pongs, with it in late May crossing $40,000 briefly before testing $33,000.
Bitcoin has been moving in a pretty straight line since May 19th when you zoom out on daily candles as pictured above.
That’s generally a sign of either gathering strength to crush support at $28,000, or bulls gathering strength to break resistance at about $42,000.
The longer it continues to hold here, the more bullish you would think as it would show there is plenty of buying support at this level.
Yet price likes to be unpredictable so it might fool either up or down with the direction generally clear only in hindsight.
Bulls and bears however clearly do not know which way to go, so they seem to be playing ping pong, with bored media so attributing this esoteric movement to esoteric tweets.
Reee Musk is now the meme of the day as anything bitcoin does is somehow attributed to anything Tesla’s Elon Musk says.
Tesla itself has seen its price fall 15% in the past month, but Musk almost never talks about Tesla anymore.
Some bitcoiners got so annoyed of Musk’s purported influence that one of them, NFL Star Russell Okung, took out a billboard to tell him off as pictured in the featured image above.
Yet his influence is likely exaggerated and superficial in as far as traders speculate what other traders might do based on his tweets.
It’s also a sign that the market is a bit quiet, so Musk is providing some entertainment which will be completely ignored once bitcoin decides what to do.
On that we have no crystal ball, but the crash was expected with the big question being where would it range, especially eth which rose to $4,400.
$3,500 would have been good, also $3,000, but even $2,500 was the thinking before the crash, with the latter so being the case this far.
If history repeats, we get a march of doublings in autumn. For bitcoin that would go from say $30k to 60, 120, 240, and then perhaps even a brief $500k if mania takes hold.
Mania. If it does do so then there would be a strong argument it isn’t quiet mania but something fundamental in bitcoin’s design, the boom and bust cycle.
Nakamoto has basically put in code and in action monetary economic theory which argues the booms and busts are caused by the contraction and increase in monetary supply.
That presumes demand remains constant or even somewhat growing. For bitcoin it is perhaps safe to assume that in general demand is at least constant but probably growing in what we can call a third wave which has as a big theme the crypto adoption by the developing or middle income to more upper middle economies.
This small change then converts to booms and busts by the massive compounding from changes in monetary supply. In this case, the halvening of bitcoin’s supply while the dollar especially doubles or triples in supply.
These halvings will eventually end and then bitcoin maybe gets a stable price, but under this theoretical model, bitcoin might reach a very brief $500,000, it then might fall to maybe $50,000 or $70,000 with the ‘real’ price based on the energy model being $100,000.
After the 2024 halvening, it may then compound from this $100,000 price to reach its ‘real’ price of now one million sometime by 2030, so it may be the 2028 halvening.
That’s too exact for something unpredictable, however, but the maths maybe is sound and so we’d get some proof, and thus truth, of at least some fundamental aspects of the nature of money.
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